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Eurozone professional forecasters upgrade (slightly) their inflation forecasts for the first time in two years

The Q1 2017 ECB survey of professional forecasters is broadly positive. Eurozone professional forecasters expect inflation to reach 1.4% on average in 2017. This is the first upgrade since Q2 2015. There has also been the first upward revision for the 2yr ahead inflation forecast since Q3 2015. Interestingly, they have not raised their forecasts for core inflation, which they see at 1.1, 1.3 and 1.5% in 2017, 2018, 2019 respectively. This is a very important measure for the ECB, which would alter its QE policy only if there is a subsequent core inflation acceleration. Otherwise, GDP growth seen at 1.5% over the 3 coming years and the unemployment rate forecasts have been lowered once again. 

 

 

Graph_ECB_SPF
DRUT Bastien , Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
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Eurozone professional forecasters upgrade (slightly) their inflation forecasts for the first time in two years
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