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The survey-based long-term inflation expectations remained stable in the US

The NY Fed published recently the survey of Primary Dealers it had conducted before the January FOMC. This survey is particularly interesting as it is used by FOMC members to gauge the view of the main participants of the US Treasury markets. One of the key points in the latest edition is how stable remained the long-term inflation expectations, despite the surge of the US dollar and the decline of oil prices. Primary dealers attach a 61% probability of the average CPI between the year N+5 and N+10 to be above 2%. Against this backdrop, the Fed is likely not to give up its fed funds tightening cycle, even if we believe that this cycle will be extremely limited.

 

2016-02-26-graphe primary dealers
DRUT Bastien , Fixed Income and FX Strategy
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The survey-based long-term inflation expectations remained stable in the US
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