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The decline of the Eurozone partners' growth prospects partly explains the ECB's December move.

The ECB announced further easing measures in December. There were mainly two reasons for that  according to Draghi's statements: lower inflation forecasts and a lower global demand. To dig further the second point, we reconstructed series of GDP growth forecasts for Eurozone's exports destinations. We considered 23 countries (ie a bit more than the 18 considered in the ECB's effective euro), we have taken the Bloomberg GDP growth forecasts (available at a daily frequency) and we simply weighted the countries by their weight in the Eurozone's external exports. This gives the following chart, where we also represent the ECB meetings.

 What is clear is that the GDP growth forecasts of eurozone's exports destinations fell heavily after the September meeting (one of the big meetings, i.e. one with new economic projections), what probably prompted (among other things, like the downward revision of inflation forecasts) the ECB to act in December. This is interesting is to see that the GDP growth forecasts of eurozone's exports destinations already fell slightly since the December meeting. This would have to be monitored quickly in the coming weeks.opportunities between the two markets).

Graph_Euro_11-01-2016
Bastien DRUT, Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
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The decline of the Eurozone partners' growth prospects partly explains the ECB's December move.
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