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ECB QE Monitor – May 10, 2018

 

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015.

The five main episodes have been:

 

  • March 9 2015 (decision to purchase €60 bn of assets per month until Sept. 2016),
  • December 3 2015 (decision to extend the QE it until March 2017),
  • March 10 2016 (decision to increase monthly purchases from €60 bn to €80 bn from April 2016)
  • December 8 2016 (decision to extend the QE until December 2017 at a reduced monthly pace of €60bn).
  • October 26 2017 (decision to extend the QE until September 2018 at a reduced monthly pace of €30bn)

 

 

Publication

 

Download the article in English

 

 

Key points for this month:

Net APP purchases in March: €30.6bn

CSPP monthly share of QE hit a low in April.

  • This slowdown is due to the fact that: (1) limited supply on the primary market and (2) favorable conditions to risky assets (spreads tightened)
  • Draghi mentioned seasonality as the main source of rebalancing between Q1 and April.
  • The point made on “no specific strategy” seems to confirm the commitment to keep purchase volumes under the private sector programmes “sizeable” in 2018

Capital key deviation.

  • Germany recoded the highest capital key deviation to its disadvantage since the beginning of the PSPP

Redemptions coming in May:

  • PSPP redemptions will be light in April (€6.2bn vs 23bn in April)
  • Slight increase in CSPP redemptions (€0.5bn vs €0.1bn in April)

 

 

Amundi Research
May 10, 2018

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ECB QE Monitor – May 10, 2018
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