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ECB QE Monitor – January 04, 2018

 

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015.

The five main episodes have been:

 

  • March 9 2015 (decision to purchase €60 bn of assets per month until Sept. 2016),
  • December 3 2015 (decision to extend the QE it until March 2017),
  • March 10 2016 (decision to increase monthly purchases from €60 bn to €80 bn from April 2016)
  • December 8 2016 (decision to extend the QE until December 2017 at a reduced monthly pace of €60bn).
  • October 26 2017 (decision to extend the QE until September 2018 at a reduced monthly pace of €30bn)

 

 

Publication

 

Download the article in English

 

 

Key points for this month:

  • The pace of PSPP net purchases has been strong at the beginning of December (frontloading of purchases) and fell to zero for the last week of the year. From January, the pace of purchases will be lower as the Eurosystem will only purchase €30bn of assets per month.
  • In 2018, PSPP redemptions (reinvestments) will account for €116 bn (€4.4bn for CSPP).
  • It is becoming harder to estimate the average maturity of the PSPP purchases as we do not have many details about the reinvestments. Note that the deviations from the capital key rule have been more limited than during the previous months.
  • Holdings of German PSPP securities account for €459bn. The estimated average maturity of December purchases has slightly declined again, to 5.8 years.
  • ECB’s balance sheet accounts for more than 39% of GDP. Banks’ excess reserves declined slightly at the end of 2017 but have rebounded over the first days of 2018 (about €1.8 trn).

 

 

Amundi Research
January 04, 2018

ITHURBIDE Philippe , Global Head of Research
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ECB QE Monitor – January 04, 2018
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