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Who will lead the World Economy?

 

 

ABSTRACT

2019.05.02-DP38-Who-will-lead-the-World-economy

When we talk about leadership, we also talk about rivalry… and 2018 was undoubtedly a particularly emblematic year of rivalry, especially between the United States and China, and to some extent, between the United States and Europe.

Power, leadership and domination (three different concepts) can be expressed in many ways, but this discussion paper focuses on two major concerns: the power / leadership of the country and the power / leadership of the currency. It addresses therefore two major questions:

  • Question # 1: will China and Europe compete with the US as the world’s leading power?
  • Question # 2: will the US dollar cease to be the “unique” international currency?

It is far from the time when only two or three countries (or even one) represented power / hyper power. These countries have not lost their power, they are “simply” forced to share it now ... The shift in global power might mean a shift in global governance. Hard power and soft power (and the combination of the two, smart power) point that the US still represent a hegemonic power, while some powers emerge gradually. Power is no more in the hands of one country and we already live in a multipolar world. With China, other countries  merge in some characteristics of power. Europe needs to push integration further to be perceived as a block.

 

ITHURBIDE Philippe , Global Head of Research

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