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Where will the next financial crisis come from? Are we ready to confront it?

 

 

ABSTRACT

Vignette-page-Sommaire-124-174

The world is not yet completely out of the 2007- 2008 financial crisis, but the risk of a new crisis already arises. The theme of “regime shift” (volatility, interest rate, inflation, etc.) has resurfaced, which led to a marked correction in financial markets in January – February.

Economic history also teaches that financial crises are seldom anticipated, or more precisely, it teaches us that measures to avoid them have never been taken in time. In reality, crises have all been preceded by often very clear signals, but they have been ignored or underestimated (by regulators, by central banks, investors…).

Is it possible to move from a regime of growth without inflation and low rates to a regime of higher volatility and inflation, and higher interest rates, without a financial crisis or a macroeconomic shock? Here is the major stake for 2018… and beyond. Where could the next financial crisis come from? Are we ready to confront it? These are the main topics of this article.

First version: March 2018 (*) - This version: July 2018

(*) The first version of this article had been prepared for an Amundi Advisory Board meeting (March 28, 2018). The author would like to thank all participants for their valuable comments.

ITHURBIDE Philippe , Global Head of Research

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