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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - July/August 2017

ASSET ALLOCATION & CONTEXT

 

 

 

2017-07-couv

 

Global Investment Views

 

This month’s topic: Fed’s Balance sheet reduction: how will it impact the US Treasury market?

FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do. Even if the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet will take place very gradually, the amount of Treasury securities that non-Fed investors will be very large. Moreover, the evolution of the Chinese FX policy will be crucial.

 

Focus: How China’s foreign exchange policy has impacted the Treasury securities market

 

Macroeconomic context: our convictions and our scenarios

Macroeconomic picture

Risk Factors

Macroeconomic and financial forecasts

FOCUS

United States

United States: is this the end of a cycle?

 

Monetary Policy

The reasons for which the ECB will exit ultra-loose monetary policy measures

 

Eurozone

Eurozone: core inflation will only rise slowly, as cyclical (and structural?) factors will continue to weigh

Portugal beats macro and budget expectations

 

Equity Markets

Equity markets: watch out for the swinging doors!

 

Corporate Bonds

CSPP in tapering times: what to expect in H2 2017 and for 2018?

 

BRICS

China: capital market openness is the new normal

Brazil: the debt markets continue to deliver, and with good reasons

 

Sectorial Highlight

Disruption 2.0: Advertising wobbles have reignited structural concerns in the media sector - Break point?

 

Team Research

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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - July/August 2017
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