+1 Added to my documents.
Please be aware your selection is temporary depending on your cookies policy.
Remove this selection here

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2015

 

CROSS ASSET INVESTMENT STRATEGY - NOVEMBER 2015

 

Insights

1_-Cross-Asset-Invt-Strategy-Monthly_November-2015-1

 

Key topics, scenarios and asset allocation

 

China and the emerging markets: double or nothing

  • Focus on the current asset allocation

 

Macroeconomic and financial scenarios at a glance

 

Themes and asset allocation

 

Central scenario and alternative scenarios: Amundi's forecasts

 

Central scenario and alternative scenarios: Amundi's expected returns

 

Risk Factors

 

>>> World population, dominant trends by 2050

Macroeconomic scenario

 

In the midst of a decoupling between advanced and emerging economies

 
 

Focus:

  • 2015-2016: a cycle reminiscent of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998
  • United States: expected behaviour of each GDP component?
  • Eurozone: expected behaviour of each GDP component?
  • Brazil and Russia: the return of country risk

Monetary policies

 

The Fed in a tightening mini-cycle, BoJ and ECB in accommodating mode, and monetary easing in the emerging countries, with few exceptions

 
 

Focus:

  • FOMC on 15-16 December: to raise or not to raise?
  • US monetary policy: The «dot plot» trap
  • The ECB's key interest rates
  • Fed: composition of the FOMC

Bond markets

 

A low-rate environment… but henceforth with greater volatility  

 

Forex markets

 

Seeking entry points for emerging and commodity currencies

  • Focus: China was penalised by the post-2008 adjustments in the forex markets

 

>>> FX rates and short-term scoring: Amundi's methodology

Credit markets

 

Opportunities will remain in the credit markets in 2016

 

Focus: 

  • New trends are emerging on the primary IG euro bond debt market
  • Corporate bonds are the few remaining oases in the Euroland yield desert

Emerging markets

 

A challenging year ahead for emerging markets with many opportunities

 

>>> Classifying the emerging economies: Amundi's methodology

>>> Capital flows to the emerging markets

 

Equity markets

 

From fear to hope

 

 

Which are the sectors for tomorrow?

 

>>> What do our maps have to say about international equities? Amundi's methodology

 

Addendum

 

 

Macroeconomic and financial forecasts

 

Amundi Research

Download this article in PDF format

Send by e-mail
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2015
Was this article helpful?YES
Thank you for your participation.
0 user(s) have answered Yes.