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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2015







Key topics, scenarios and asset allocation


China and the emerging markets: double or nothing

  • Focus on the current asset allocation


Macroeconomic and financial scenarios at a glance


Themes and asset allocation


Central scenario and alternative scenarios: Amundi's forecasts


Central scenario and alternative scenarios: Amundi's expected returns


Risk Factors


>>> World population, dominant trends by 2050

Macroeconomic scenario


In the midst of a decoupling between advanced and emerging economies



  • 2015-2016: a cycle reminiscent of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998
  • United States: expected behaviour of each GDP component?
  • Eurozone: expected behaviour of each GDP component?
  • Brazil and Russia: the return of country risk

Monetary policies


The Fed in a tightening mini-cycle, BoJ and ECB in accommodating mode, and monetary easing in the emerging countries, with few exceptions



  • FOMC on 15-16 December: to raise or not to raise?
  • US monetary policy: The «dot plot» trap
  • The ECB's key interest rates
  • Fed: composition of the FOMC

Bond markets


A low-rate environment… but henceforth with greater volatility  


Forex markets


Seeking entry points for emerging and commodity currencies

  • Focus: China was penalised by the post-2008 adjustments in the forex markets


>>> FX rates and short-term scoring: Amundi's methodology

Credit markets


Opportunities will remain in the credit markets in 2016



  • New trends are emerging on the primary IG euro bond debt market
  • Corporate bonds are the few remaining oases in the Euroland yield desert

Emerging markets


A challenging year ahead for emerging markets with many opportunities


>>> Classifying the emerging economies: Amundi's methodology

>>> Capital flows to the emerging markets


Equity markets


From fear to hope



Which are the sectors for tomorrow?


>>> What do our maps have to say about international equities? Amundi's methodology





Macroeconomic and financial forecasts


Amundi Research

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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2015
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