The economic environment has shifted since the start of the year:
Against this backdrop, investors have changed their monetary policy expectations:
Consequences on the bond market:
The protectionist threat and rising political risk will continue to weigh on markets, but global growth should be able to weather these risks. In that context, interest rates should increase but in a limited way. We expect the game changer for the markets to be the US economic growth cycle and the global liquidity cycle.