A more challenging global financial environment is putting pressure on EM risky assets with particular impact in some segments (Local Currency) / EM Markets are still very dependent not only on global financial conditions but even on global demand. / EM Monetary Policy is shifting towards a tighter stance further penalising domestic economic cycles / External vulnerability has reduced in the years but the conditions are very heterogeneous among different countries / Three cases of vulnerability: Brazil, Turkey and Argentina
Alessia BERARDI, Karine HERVE, Sosi VARTANESYAN
« An integrated approach, analysing EM through multiple lenses (country, credit and geopolitical risk; macro and micro reform momentum), will in our view be key to understanding a complex and rapidly evolving world.»
Claudia BERTINO, Laura FIOROT, Alessia BERARDI, Giuseppina MARINOTTI, Qinwei WANG, Mauro RATTO
In our opinion, we should dismiss the idea that talks could breakdown, albeit uncertainties remain. On one side, in order to reach an agreement China wants the U.S. to remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.
Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Qinwei WANG