The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.
Paresh UPADHYAYA, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD
Fixed Income and FX Strategy
GDP stagnated in the first quarter of 2015. The weather does not explain the entire situation. The dollar’s appreciation has an impact on activity that is comparable to a tightening of monetary conditions. Should we fear the end of the cycle? In terms of profi ts, yes, but in terms of economic activity, it is still premature.
Head of Macroeconomic Research