Will the final act of the “Great Divide” between the Fed and the ECB result in a liquidity tantrum? The current bond environment is wholly extraordinary. Neither the recovery in rates nor the bond volatility inherent in a low-rate environment can quite account for it.
Marc-Ali BEN ABDALLAH, Karine HERVE, Julien MOUSSAVI
The return of bond volatility in Europe was expected. However, its severity was a big surprise indeed. It was fed by liquidity problems in Europe, the prospect of interest rate normalisation in the United States, not to mention the latest Greek debt stress episode.
Marc-Ali BEN ABDALLAH, Delphine GEORGES
Using a fundamental and statistical approach, we establish a classification of the emerging economies that groups similar profiles together. We focus on 20 emerging economies and collect 14 macroeconomic variables on a quarterly basis, which we group into four areas: (i) macroeconomic outlook, (ii) quality of public balance sheets, (iii) investment and savings, and (iv) vulnerability.
Marc-Ali BEN ABDALLAH, Julien MOUSSAVI