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How the Bank of England sees the Brexit


The essential

The way the Bank of England (BoE) perceives Brexit has changed a great deal since early 2016. Bearish interventions by several of its members before the referendum had been severely criticised by observers who found the institution too politicised. Shortly after the referendum, the worsening of a few short-term indicators had caused it to avoid all risks and take powerful monetary easing measures. Since then, the British economy did much better than expected, which caused the BoE to revise its growth forecasts upward.

The better-than-expected performance by the British economy sent a wave of optimism through the UK. The BoE has recently adjusted its message, clearly stating that it was working with the assumption of a soft Brexit. That said, the economic surprise indicators just moved back into negative territory in May, and negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union are just beginning. It’s fair to ask whether the BoE is becoming too optimistic after having been too pessimistic.


June 2017


Juin 2017


The Article


Roberta FORTES Bastien DRUT & , Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
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How the Bank of England sees the Brexit
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