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In the United States, the equity/bond ratio is at its highest since 2000: what does this imply?

 

The essential

In the United States, the equity/bond ratio is at its highest since 2000.

The fundamentals suggest that this trend will continue and equity valuations in comparison with fixed income are still compatible with this idea.

As long as the earnings trend holds up and the debate over tax reform sustains the hope that the cycle will be extended, staying invested in equity makes sense. However, the debate is likely to end at the same time as annual earnings comparisons become less easy (at the end of the third quarter). The risk/reward ratio could therefore deteriorate in the second half of the year.

At present, diversifying into non-US equities is the best option, especially with eurozone stocks. A more defensive stance should subsequently be considered.

Flag-UK

May 2017

Flag-FR

Mai 2017

 

The Article

L'Article

Eric MIJOT, Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
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