The second part of 2015 was characterised by renewed volatility. Spreads widened significantly in August, September and more recently in December, mainly on the back of increasing concerns tied to the consequences of the slowdown in China and the fall in oil prices.
Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
Valentine AINOUZ, Sergio BERTONCINI, Grégoire PESQUES
The end of US HY “mini” default cycle (almost completely commodity-driven) is approaching. Our regressions point to a significant fall in US default rates from the 6% area to 3.7% by December. No material deviation is expected from the still-benign European default cycle, which is likely to remain stable and low by historical standards in 2017, as well.
Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi Milan