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HY default rates: 2016 review and 2017 outlook

 

The essential

2017 is likely to see no material changes in the European default rate outlook, which is expected to remain stable at current levels – low by historical standards – over the next quarters, as they were in 2016. At the same time, 2017 should be a positive year for US default rates, as, after peaking at close to 6% very soon they are expected to fall below 4% by next December.

 

According to our regressions, based on topdown factors, the US "mini-cycle", which is almost completely commodity-driven, is coming to an end, and bankruptcies likely to fall back below their long-term averages.

CROSS ASSET (Download)

Flag-UK
February 2017

 

Flag-FR
Février 2017

 

The Article

L'Article

Sergio BERTONCINI, Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi Milan
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HY default rates: 2016 review and 2017 outlook
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