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ASSET ALLOCATION - Macroeconomic and financial trends, investment themes for 2017: state of affairs

 

The essential

As 2017 begins, it is helpful to take stock of the key issues coming into focus. The last few months have seen a theatre of major changes (notably Brexit and Donald Trump’s election), and some heavy trends (like the preservation of ultra-low long-term rates or the stability of inflation expectations) are looking threatened. 

The purpose of this chapter is to take stock of every aspect of our central scenario and the current status of our asset allocation, and of intended changes over the coming months. One of the key aspects is the reassessment of US growth and the Fed’s monetary policy, and the impact of the new Trump Administration’s future policies not just on growth, but also on world trade and international diplomacy.

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> Risk Factors

> Macroeconomic picture

> Macroeconomic and financial forecasts

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> Facteurs de risque

> Contexte macroéconomique

> Prévisions macroéconomiques et financières

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January 2017

 

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Janvier 2017

 

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2017.01 - Strategy Insight

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Major macroeconomic and financial themes

We have identified 12 themes for the quarters ahead:

Theme # 1

Economic growth: the expansion cycle continues in major advanced economies, but at a slow pace.

Theme # 2

World trade is no longer a key factor for growth

Theme # 3

Economic policies: the policy mix is gradually rebalancing more towards budget and fiscal policies

Theme # 4

Inflation: not yet a risk, but a factor that must now be taken into account

Theme # 5

Bond markets: still “dysfunctional” but sensitive to the new American situation

Theme # 6

Risky assets: encouraged by the repricing of American growth, at least initially

Theme # 7

China: significant risks and challenges, but situation still under control

Theme # 8

Emerging markets: a triumphant return in the second half?

Theme # 9

Currency markets: the “adjustment variable” of 2017?

Theme # 10

Political situation in Europe and Brexit: complex and crucial issues for financial markets

Theme # 11

Geopolitics and immigration: recurring, long-lasting and destructuring factors

Theme # 12

Macro-hedging strategies remain a priority

ITHURBIDE Philippe , Global Head of Research
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ASSET ALLOCATION - Macroeconomic and financial trends, investment themes for 2017: state of affairs
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