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Chinese yuan: from crisis to normalisation

 

The essential

We believe that the Chinese yuan will be a currency stabiliser in 2017, a phenomenon that is still underestimated by the market. We also believe that the Chinese economy will stabilise in 2017, which is already partially priced in.

We think that expectations for depreciation of the yuan have finally normalised away from crisis status. We also think the Trump government will only help to a minor extent in terms of expectations on two-way fluctuations of the Chinese currency. However, the increased importance of the petrorenminbi will bring a paradigm change to the global economy. Looking further into the future, the larger and more open the Chinese economy becomes compared to the closed off and smaller US economy, relatively speaking at least, will rewrite everything we currently know.

CROSS ASSET (Download)

Flag-UK
December 2016

 

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Decembre 2016

The Article

L'Article

JI Mo , Amundi Hong Kong Chief Economist
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Chinese yuan: from crisis to normalisation
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