+1 Added to my documents.
Please be aware your selection is temporary depending on your cookies policy.
Remove this selection here

Macroeconomic scenario in 2017 and beyond - 2017: a lynchpin year dominated by global reflation (United States, China) and political uncertainty

 

The essential

Our 2017 scenario is based on six key ideas: (1) the expansion cycle continues in the main developed countries but at a slow pace; (2) domestic demand remains the cornerstone of the economies (whether developed or emerging); (3) the Chinese authorities manage to conduct an orderly slowdown of their economy in 2017 and 2018 despite increased vulnerability (property bubble, unsustainable private debt in the medium term); (4) The expansionary fiscal policy in the United States extends the cycle but has no impact before the end of 2017; (5) commodity prices stabilise at a slightly higher level than their current level ($55 for a barrel of Brent); (6) the rise in inflation related to the base effect is temporary and monetary policies remain very accommodative.

We are expecting global reflation to continue and are forecasting global growth close to 3% in 2017 and 2018, without any significant acceleration, except in a few emerging countries coming out of recession and/or making good the activity lost during the fall in commodity prices (Brazil, Russia).

 

Focus :

Why is world trade slowing?

Eurozone: outlooks for the components of GDP

Japan: expected behaviour of each GDP component

China: expected behaviour of each GDP component in 2017

India: the key issues in 2017

CROSS ASSET (Download)

Flag-UK
November 2016

Flag-FR
November 2016

The Article

L'Article

 

Coordinated fiscal stimulus:
the upcoming change in policy-mix?

Budgetary policy as an instrument of economic policy has not always been he rage. The criticism most often levelled against it is that it requires substantial budgetary leeway and lacks responsiveness (because it takes time to implement and benefits are felt only after some delay). Nonetheless, pushed by the IMF, the idea of budgetary stimulus has come back into vogue and goesby the name of “coordinated fiscal policy”.

 

Anne-Charlotter PARET , Strategy and Economic Research

Flag-UK

Read more

Flag-FR

En savoir plus

President TRUMP -
Three scenarios for the US economy

In all likelihood, President Trump will not keep all of the promises he made as a candidate. On many subjects, the President-elect already seems to be backtracking (wall between Mexico and the United States, expulsion of immigrants). Of course, the President does have a majority in Congress, but the majority in the Senate (one seat out of 100) is too small to allow the President to dispense with moderates, who are deeply hostile to any budgetary drift (unless the economy slows down significantly). Under these circumstances, there is deep uncertainty over the policy that will actually be implemented. It will most likely be several months before we have a clear vision of the new administration’s main priorities. We can discern three scenarios.

Didier BOROWSKI, Research, Strategy & Analysis

Flag-UK

Read more

Flag-FR

En savoir plus

Oil market :
what is the scenario for 2017-2020

In recent months, there have been more and more signs of a rebalancing of the oil market.

Emmanuel MARTIN, Equity Analysis

Flag-UK

Read more

Flag-FR

En savoir plus

 

BOROWSKI Didier , Head of Macroeconomic Research
HERVE Karine , PhD, Senior Economist
JI Mo , Amundi Hong Kong Chief Economist
PERRIER Tristan , Senior Economist
YOSHINO Akio , Equity Research and Strategy at Amundi Japan
Send by e-mail
Macroeconomic scenario in 2017 and beyond - 2017: a lynchpin year dominated by global reflation (United States, China) and political uncertainty
Was this article helpful?YES
Thank you for your participation.
0 user(s) have answered Yes.