Many of the factors that challenged EM currencies in 2015 are likely to continue in the year ahead. Emerging Markets are caught between tightening policy rates in the US, a free-fall in commodity prices, which is partially driven by a China slowdown, and heightened idiosyncratic risks.
Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Bastien DRUT
Will the final act of the “Great Divide” between the Fed and the ECB result in a liquidity tantrum? The current bond environment is wholly extraordinary. Neither the recovery in rates nor the bond volatility inherent in a low-rate environment can quite account for it.
Marc-Ali BEN ABDALLAH, Karine HERVE, Julien MOUSSAVI
It is clearly too soon to write the word “end” at the bottom of the page regarding the Greek crisis but the market’s attention is already switching to the next hot topics - and there are quite a lot of them on the table, starting obviously with the situation in China.
Global Head of Fixed Income at Amundi