Many of the factors that challenged EM currencies in 2015 are likely to continue in the year ahead. Emerging Markets are caught between tightening policy rates in the US, a free-fall in commodity prices, which is partially driven by a China slowdown, and heightened idiosyncratic risks.
Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Bastien DRUT
Will the final act of the “Great Divide” between the Fed and the ECB result in a liquidity tantrum? The current bond environment is wholly extraordinary. Neither the recovery in rates nor the bond volatility inherent in a low-rate environment can quite account for it.
Marc-Ali BEN ABDALLAH, Karine HERVE, Julien MOUSSAVI
Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi