+1 Added to my documents.
Please be aware your selection is temporary depending on your cookies policy.
Remove this selection here

ASSET ALLOCATION: 2017 and Beyond - Elections in Europe, Brexit, financial stability in China and the direction of budgetary and fiscal policy…...

 

The essential

In an ultra-low or even negative interest rate environment, maintaining an overweight stance in emerging market assets (equities, debt and currencies), in credit (vs. government bonds) still makes sense, while continuing our search for yield and spreads. “Alternative” and “real”assets also remain attractive from a diversification and yield standpoint. 2017 is nevertheless expected to be a more complex year than 2015 or 2016.

However, there is no denying that the negotiations over Brexit, (with the risks on the United Kingdom but also on the political cohesion of the European Union), the situation in China (credit bubble, exchange rate policy and capital account opening policy), the limitations of monetary policy or the prospects for a change in the direction of budgetary and fiscal policies (with the United States probably showing the way with the new leadership), or finally the different elections in Europe (and the rise in populist movements) are likely to bring about meaningful change in current trends. This is what our stress tests clearly show. Anticipate periods of severe stress and the implementation of portfolio hedging. The year 2017 seems to be a pivotal year for financial markets, particularly for bond yields and emerging markets.

 

Focus

The impact of the negative interest rates on European banks

Flag-UK

> Risk Factors

> Macroeconomic and financial forecasts

Flag-FR

> Facteurs de risque

> Prévisions macroéconomiques et financières

CROSS ASSET (Download)

Flag-UK
November 2016

Flag-FR
November 2016

The Article

Watch the video

L'Article

 

 

 

 

 

 

한국어 문서 다운로드 (Korean)

Flag-ZH

下載文件(繁體中文版)(Chinese)

 

Pobierz wersję w języku polskim (Polish)

本文書の日本語版はこちらでダウンロードできます。 (Japanese)

 

Europe: a burdensome political uncertainty

Important elections will be held at the end of 2016 and in 2017 in several major eurozone countries. A sluggish recovery, the refugee crisis and the terrorist threat (not speaking of the potential spillovers of the US presidential election) have increased the influence of populist and/or Eurosceptic parties and are making the situation of ruling governments all the more complicated.

Valérie LETORT - Tristan PERRIER ,
Strategy and Economic Research

 

Flag-UK

Read more

Flag-FR

En savoir plus

 

ITHURBIDE Philippe , Global Head of Research
Send by e-mail
ASSET ALLOCATION: 2017 and Beyond - Elections in Europe, Brexit, financial stability in China and the direction of budgetary and fiscal policy…...
Was this article helpful?YES
Thank you for your participation.
0 user(s) have answered Yes.
Related articles