the articles & research center news
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary pollsand far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put herodds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.
Sir. Simon Fraser, Former Permanent Secretary at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office, and Amundi’s experts will share their insights on the current unique UK state of affairs regarding Brexit (outcomes & political/economic/financial implications).
Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Laurent CROSNIER, Tristan PERRIER, Simon FRASER
Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI
The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government:The new pro- European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances at risk. However, the available room for manoeuvre is narrow.
Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE
Political crisis and possible scenarios: The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call for fresh elections.
Sergio BERTONCINI, Didier BOROWSKI, Matteo GERMANO, Lorenzo PORTELLI, Annalisa USARDI
During the first 18 months of his presidential term, Emmanuel Macron has put through a highly ambitious set of reforms inspired by supply-side economics and the Nordic flexicurity model. While the biggest accomplishments have been in taxation and the job market, the goods and services markets and social benefits programmes have also been addressed.
CFA, Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
In just a few days, investors have shifted from perhaps excessive complacency to excess pessimism about Italian politics. Volatility is likely to remain for some time, as Italy is entering into unknown territory in terms of governance, which is perhaps worth a specific political risk premium.
Annalisa USARDI, Didier BOROWSKI