Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI
the articles & research center news
The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government:The new pro- European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances at risk. However, the available room for manoeuvre is narrow.
Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE
Political crisis and possible scenarios: The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call for fresh elections.
Sergio BERTONCINI, Didier BOROWSKI, Matteo GERMANO, Lorenzo PORTELLI, Annalisa USARDI
Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year. Weak growth prospects are making it more difficult to comply with deficit and debt targets, although some savings may come from lower spending. In any case, the 2020 budget is the most challenging test for the government.
Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI
Matteo GERMANO, Monica DEFEND, Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI, Didier BOROWSKI
CFA, Senior Economist
In a year that will see the end of net PSPP purchases by the ECB and an increase in projected net issuance, we focus on Italy’s funding strategy and primary market outlook for 2019, a topic likely to become more closely monitored on the markets’ radar screens over the next quarters
Annalisa USARDI, Sergio BERTONCINI
Although the big part of the discussion on the Italian budget law has gravitated around the citizenship income and the pension system changes,the Italian Budget Law for 2019 contains some provisions that so far had less resonance but that could have positive impact on the Italian economy, although some challenges remain on the implementation front.
Annalisa USARDI, Gregorio VANIN