the articles & research center news
Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER, Philippe ITHURBIDE, Monica DEFEND
Qinwei WANG, Didier BOROWSKI, Annalisa USARDI, Tristan PERRIER, Gregorio VANIN, Akio YOSHINO, Alessia BERARDI, Karine HERVE, Sosi VARTANESYAN
PhD, Senior Economist
The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT). Post the first round, Bolsonaro appeared to be the favourite, based on discontent with established politics. However, Brazil’s political path is unlikely to be straight-forward: a solid coalition is necessary to set important reforms, but this does not appear to be on the cards.
Alessia BERARDI, Yerlan SYZDYKOV
A more challenging global financial environment is putting pressure on EM risky assets with particular impact in some segments (Local Currency) / EM Markets are still very dependent not only on global financial conditions but even on global demand. / EM Monetary Policy is shifting towards a tighter stance further penalising domestic economic cycles / External vulnerability has reduced in the years but the conditions are very heterogeneous among different countries / Three cases of vulnerability: Brazil, Turkey and Argentina
Alessia BERARDI, Karine HERVE, Sosi VARTANESYAN