Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI
the articles & research center news
The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government:The new pro- European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances at risk. However, the available room for manoeuvre is narrow.
Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE
Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China.
Deputy Head of Macroeconomic Research
Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year. Weak growth prospects are making it more difficult to comply with deficit and debt targets, although some savings may come from lower spending. In any case, the 2020 budget is the most challenging test for the government.
Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI
Kasper ELMGREEN, Eric MIJOT, Ibra WANE, Tristan PERRIER
Didier BOROWSKI, Eric BRARD, Kasper ELMGREEN, Tristan PERRIER
Hervé BOIRAL, Didier BOROWSKI, Tristan PERRIER, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE
Matteo GERMANO, Monica DEFEND, Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI, Didier BOROWSKI
Amundi Research & Investment Insights Unit