/ Research Center

11.12.2019 - Investment Talks

UK election could pave the way for an orderly Brexit and a rebound in equities

The possibility of seeing a smoother, faster Brexit will depend on the outcome of the UK election on Thursday, 12 December.

Tristan PERRIER, Laurent CROSNIER, Kasper ELMGREEN

09.12.2019 - Insights Paper

Screen the Euro fixed income market in the era of three ‘lows’

As 2020 approaches, the uncertainty in the market has receded but there are still risks ahead involving macroeconomic, political and technical factors. Under such a scenario and with central banks being accommodative, we do not envisage a major increase in European core bond yields from their current levels given the limited growth potential and the scarcity of tools left in the ECB’s toolkit to stimulate the economy. Should the economic situation deteriorate, there could be room for yields to fall, but probably not to the lows reached in late August/early September.

Hervé BOIRAL, Sergio BERTONCINI, Francesca PANELLI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE, Eric BRARD, Gilles DAUPHINE'

06.12.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Corporate fundamentals are at the centre of the game

Over the last decade, easy financial conditions encouraged an increase in sovereign and corporate debt. Indeed, the leverage of American companies has reached record high levels and US corporate debt has been used for financial risk-taking to fund corporate payments to investors, as well as for mergers and acquisitions. At the opposite, the leverage of European companies has remained at low levels as European companies have remained more cautious over this cycle. In 2019, we have evolved in a new regime: the global economy has entered a synchronised slowdown and major central banks have returned to an easing stance. What are the risks for companies in this new context? We are following closely: The downgrade risk in the US Investment Grade universe. Net leverage for US issuers have resumed their upward trajectory in recent months. In 2020: (1) companies to make a trade-off between maintaining share buy backs and the stability or their debt (2) the downgrade risk to increase among firms facing increase pressure on profits. The default rate risk for low-quality high-yield bonds. Sluggish earning growth poses the biggest threat for companies to pay interest on their debt despite the low cost of financing. Indeed, at this stage of the cycle, we think that interest coverage is more closely related to earnings than to its interest expense: interest coverage could be quickly eroded by a hit to earnings. A selective approach is required in the low-rated Euro and US High Yield segments.

Valentine AINOUZ

Fixed Income and Credit Strategist

06.12.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context and forecasts - December 2019

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

05.12.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2019

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Find the latest edition of our Research team's monthly publication

Amundi Research

Investment Oulook 2020 - Interview Monica Defend

04.12.2019 - Video

Amundi Investment Outlook 2020

Interview with Monica Defend, Global Head of Research

Monica DEFEND

Global Head of Research

03.12.2019 - Discussion Paper

Quantitative easing: the end of the road for pension investors?

Has central banks’ Quantitative Easing (QE) been a blessing or a curse for investors?

Amin RAJAN

CEO, CREATE-Research

27.11.2019 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - December 2019

CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

22.11.2019 - Market Outlook

2020 Investment Outlook - Be agile to cope with diverging scenarios

We enter 2020 with the conviction that at this stage a slowdown is in the nature of the cycle, but there are some specific features that characterise it as a peculiar regime. Under this transition phase, the market doesn’t crash, but doesn’t rally either and investors will have to stay cautious and watch out for tactical opportunities waiting for the next big directional catalyst.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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