/ Research Center

06.11.2019 - Investment Talks

China’s growth tremors: risks, opportunities and the road ahead

Soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.

Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Esther LAW

29.10.2019 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - A tug of war between weaker growth and looser policies

Emerging economies have faced a backlash in the last few months as a consequence of the global economic weakness and the uncertainty related to global trade.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

12.09.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Trade war escalation and impact on world trade and economic growth

Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China.

Alessia BERARDI

Deputy Head of Macroeconomic Research

20.08.2019 - Investment Talks

Argentina: how recent events shape the investment outlook

Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.

Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Argentina's Political and Market Risks - 1280-400

14.08.2019 - Investment Talks

Argentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks

Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.

Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Yerlan SYZDYKOV, Sosi VARTANESYAN

05.08.2019 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Finding a balance between easing central banks and an uncertain scenario

The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets.

Alessia BERARDI, Didier BOROWSKI, Claudia BERTINO, Debora DELBÓ, Ujjwal DHINGRA, Colm D’ROSARIO, Laura FIOROT, Karine HERVE, Patrice LEMONNIER, Giovanni LICCARDO, Sergei STRIGO, Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Emerging Markets: Vulnerability and contagion risks

01.07.2019 - Discussion Paper

Emerging Markets: Vulnerability and contagion risks... Fragile vs. anti-fragile countries

This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to benefit from it.

Philippe ITHURBIDE, Mickael BELLAICHE

01.07.2019 - Discussion Paper

How to differenciate emerging countries? New approaches for classification and typology

Once accepted the idea that the emerging world may behave like a block in period of crises (as the group of advanced countries also does), one must wonder whether one should go beyond that and consider that the emerging world deserves better.

Philippe ITHURBIDE, Mickael BELLAICHE

25.06.2019 - Thematic Paper

Turkey: inflation, exchange rate’s pass-through and monetary policy

Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

Karine HERVE

PhD, Senior Economist

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