Tristan PERRIER, Laurent CROSNIER, Kasper ELMGREEN
the articles & research center news
Sébastien Maillard, Director of the Jacques Delors Institute, and Amundi's experts, shared their insights on the new European leaders taking office and their agenda, and addressed possible asset allocation impacts.
Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Sébastien MAILLARD, Didier BOROWSKI, Luc MOUZON
Risks of a no-deal Brexit have receded materially over the past few weeks, implying that the Bank of England is now more likely to keep its monetary policy on hold, in a wait-and-see mode over the next year. UK nominal yields have already removed most of the no-deal risk, having repriced up by almost 30bps from their October lows, and are seen moving more in line with the global trend in nominal rates going forward.
Sergio BERTONCINI, Tristan PERRIER, Silvia DI SILVIO
Following the three-month extension granted to the UK by the EU on 28 October and the newly announced snap election, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Agreement signed on 17 October between the United Kingdom and the EU will be ratified, leading to an orderly Brexit and the initiation of a transition period during which the United Kingdom will retain most of its access to the EU single market until at least end-2020. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is now greatly diminished.
Tristan PERRIER, Kasper ELMGREEN, Monica DEFEND, Laurent CROSNIER
In their September meetings, both the ECB and Fed confirmed their easing mode. The ECB delivered a full monetary policy package (pre-announced in previous months), combining conventional and unconventional tools, together with the introduction of new measures aimed at reducing the sideeffects of negative rates. The FOMC delivered its second rate cut and kept the easing bias while refraining from giving clues on forward guidance, on the back of the still supportive domestic economic picture and the mixed views emerging from the dots. For the first time, therefore, the Fed hinted at resuming the organic growth of its balance sheet: the objective will be to consistently calibrate reserves to the new level of rates, in order to keep optimal abundant liquidity levels, so as not to provide a further stimulus to the economy. In this piece, we focus on these very latest developments and on the monetary policy outlook.
Sergio BERTONCINI, Valentine AINOUZ
Amundi Research & Investment Insights Unit
Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before 31 October (the current Brexit deadline). This week, the UK Supreme Court judged “unlawful” the advice to susped the legislature given by Boris Johnson to the Queen. These events strengthen our view that another extension of the Brexit deadline is the most likely scenario.
Laurent CROSNIER, Kasper ELMGREEN, Tristan PERRIER
Sir. Simon Fraser, Former Permanent Secretary at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office, and Amundi’s experts will share their insights on the current unique UK state of affairs regarding Brexit (outcomes & political/economic/financial implications).
Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Laurent CROSNIER, Tristan PERRIER, Simon FRASER