Investment Talks / Publications / Research Center

18.09.2019 - Investment Talks

View on Italy: beyond the short term

The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government:The new pro- European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances at risk. However, the available room for manoeuvre is narrow.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE

21.08.2019 - Investment Talks

Italian Politics take centre stage

Political crisis and possible scenarios: The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call for fresh elections.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Didier BOROWSKI, Matteo GERMANO, Lorenzo PORTELLI, Annalisa USARDI

20.08.2019 - Investment Talks

Argentina: how recent events shape the investment outlook

Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.

Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Argentina's Political and Market Risks - 1280-400

14.08.2019 - Investment Talks

Argentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks

Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.

Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Yerlan SYZDYKOV, Sosi VARTANESYAN

09.08.2019 - Investment Talks

US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures inform of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.

Didier BOROWSKI, Angelo CORBETTA, Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Francesco SANDRINI

15.07.2019 - Investment Talks

Revisiting fixed income opportunities after the European institution appointments

The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.

Didier BOROWSKI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE, Grégoire PESQUES

03.07.2019 - Investment Talks

G20: market relief, eyes now on Central Bank's execution

The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on $200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation, which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.

Vincent MORTIER, Didier BOROWSKI, Monica DEFEND

21.06.2019 - Investment Talks

Three themes for European equities to be back in focus

Volatility is here to stay. Markets are hostages of very volatile news flow.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Eric MIJOT, Ibra WANE, Tristan PERRIER

29.05.2019 - Investment Talks

Indian elections: political continuity is positive but reform is what matters most

The favourable election outcome should ensure continuity on the broader reform agenda and help the government to undertake some of its unfinished tasks.

Navneet MUNOT, Yerlan SYZDYKOV

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