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Radical shift of primary dealers' expectations about US long-term rates
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The NY Fed just published its survey of Primary Dealers (conducted before the January FOMC). This survey is particularly interesting as it is used by FOMC members to gauge the view of the main participants of the US Treasury market. While, in December, they attached only a 25% probability to the possibility to see the 10 y. yield being below 2.50% at the end of 2016, they attached in January a probability close to 60% to this event. The shift has been radical mostly because of the January's market events. This conforts our view that US long-term rates can rise only slightly in 2016.

2016-02-22-graphe primary dealers
DRUT Bastien , Fixed Income and FX Strategy
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Radical shift of primary dealers' expectations about US long-term rates
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