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French elections: the eyes are already turning to the legislative elections

This Sunday will take place the second round of the French presidential elections. The extreme risks disappeared gradually and, ex-cept for huge surprise, Emmanuel Macron should be the next president of the French Republic. This is what the polls tell us: 60%-62% for E. Macron, 38%-40% for Mr. Le Pen). This is also what the surveys of the French tell us, especially those that were conducted after the last broadcast debate between the two candidates, a debate of which Macron came out large winner. Next step: the parliamentary elections (11 and 18 June).

Although we usually tend to trust the methodology of French pollsters and conclusions, the results of the surveys must be taken with caution. 5 uncertainties are at play:

  • There is, first of all, an unknown factor: the participation rate. Will it be higher, weaker? Who will benefit from this?
  • There is then a new deal: the end of the traditional bipartition (traditional right, traditional left), which will undoubtedly be of importance in the choice of voters;
  • There is a variant: locally, the French certainly vote for a party, but also for the political personality, except that the desire for "new heads" clearly manifested during the presidential election;
  • There is a novelty: a crumbling of the republican front. For the first time, a party ("Debout La France", Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) took the step and concluded an alliance with the Front National.
  • For some parties, it is simply a question of political survival. These parties, the biggest losers in the presidential elections (the Socialist Party and the Republican Party), have to do everything they can to have a broad representation in the National Assembly, and they will probably have more difficulty to withdraw in the second round At the national front) and to make electoral "gifts" to the new president.

« En Marche ! / Macron», the great winner of the general elections ?

It should be remembered that for a party to have a parliamentary group in the Assembly, which is an important condition for active participation in political life, it needs at least 15 seats

According to an OpinionWay poll - SLPV analytics made for the newspaper "Les Echos, the movement of Emmanuel Macron would be the big winner, totaling between 249 to 286 deputies on the 535 positions covered by the survey. The Republican right would obtain between 200 and 210 seats, the Front National of Marine Le Pen would obtain only 15 to 25 seats (consequences of the trans-fers of votes and the "vitality" of the republican front), , i.e. less than 5% of the seats. The socialist left party (between 28 and 43 seats) and the radical left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (between 6 and 8 seats for “La France Insoumise”) would be the other great losers of these elections. As for the Socialist Party, it would be the worst result of its history. This would also be the end of the left-right biparti-tion of the National Assembly.

General elections: second rounds with 2, 3 or 3 contenders?

Let us remember that it is necessary to obtain at least 12.5% of the votes in the first round to be able to compete at the second. Political fragmentation raises fears for many triangular and even quadrangular ones (three candidates, or even four who compete in the second round).It should not be the case this time. According to this study, there would be between 90 and 116 duels opposing En Marche! and the Front National, 180 duels opposing En Marche! and the right wing party, 46 duels opposing left wing and En Marche!, 154 duels opposing right wing party and Front National, 6 to 32 duel opposing left wing and Front National. There would also be around 30 triangular elections, opposing Front National, En Marche! and La France Insoumise. By way of comparison, in 2012, there were 420 duels between the classical right and the classical left, both absent to the second round of the presidential election last Sunday.

 

 

 

2017-05-05 - graph 1

 

ITHURBIDE Philippe , Global Head of Research
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French elections: the eyes are already turning to the legislative elections
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